Cost and Failure of Paid Online Dating

Part 4: Online Dating– Why Doesn’t a Paid Site Like eHarmony Work?

Welcome to Part Two of Online Dating.  Last time, we looked at the cost of Free Online Dating sites.  Now we look at the upper-class side of this neighborhood.

Regulated, or “Paid” Online Dating is a cleaner neighborhood than unregulated (“Free”) online dating sites.

• Ads and the upsell draft towards Adult/Niche/Cam are absent
• Memberships are screened before the profile is approved
• Complaints about inappropriate behavior either online or in person are taken seriously
• The extensive profile process weeds out people who aren’t serious about using the site to meet someone.

The automatically generated profile personality assessment is surprisingly accurate.  I created an eHarmony profile, used it (for years!) and had a professional psychologist review my assessment; it was spot-on.

These sites offer products.  And have monthly fees.

The cynic in me asks: if these sites were so interested in having you meet someone, how would they stay in business if they were effective?  If you meet someone, you cancel your account and their monthly revenue drops.  If you think you can keep it purring in the background while you’re dating someone: think again!  Women are experts at finding your tiger tail trail on the internet.  Companies are dedicated to assisting them on finding out all about you.  Ok, if you find someone, you’ll tell your friends, “I found someone great using website xyz!  Have you heard of it?  Check it out!”  Unless they live on the moon, they already know about the major sites.  If it was a smaller site, more dedicated to a community (e.g., jdate) they probably already know about it, too, by asking all those already-taken ladies (or the guys who know them) how they met someone and how he could meet someone like her too.  See?  It is ok to go onto a website to find a good woman because someone else did, and she isn’t a “download.”  (Remember that when we talk about Russian Brides.)

But the user model of Paid Online Dating sites is the biggest problem I see to their effectiveness for you.

These sites send you limited numbers of matches, though regularly.  You read through profiles.  Then go through multiple communication stages before you can get contact information and arrange Date 0.  To get best use out of a site like this, you need to be on it at least a few nights a week.  Women will close you out if you don’t respond quickly.  Or, one of the other guys in their pipeline will be their bright shiny object… for a month.  But that is enough for you to get closed out “I’m seeing someone else.”  Hey, at least they get back to you, unlike all those resume submissions when job searching.  So, you will be on a few nights a week.  And, you will be on 30-60 minutes a session, even if you use canned responses to the essay questions.  You will have many more coffee dates (Date 0) than the Unregulated sites will offer.  But the funnel will get you.  Let’s use the “funnel” concept from sales.  After all, in the dating world in America, you are selling yourself, looking for a buyer.

The total cost of online dating. Time to bring in the big equipment!

Derivation of time and cost to meet that special someone using a multi-stage match-to-meet process.

First, let’s look at the numbers.  Then, we’ll determine the time.  Then the cost!

These are data collected by our scientists.  We’ve collected the data from many members of eHarmony, and other similar sites which use a similar multi-stage process.  You can use your own based on your empirical data from your life.  These data are taken from the male-rich environment of the San Francisco Bay Area.

Here you go!

In your account you get a handful of “matches.”  You look at them.  How many will you need to get to a “decision point” about a relationship?

• One in five matches will be interesting to you  (1/5)
• You will interest one in five matches  (1/5) [1/25]
• Mutual interest match does not “fadeout” during stages between “Guided Communicate” and “Contact Details” (1/4) [1/100]
• Open Communication -> Date 0 (Coffee Date)  (1/2) [1/200]
• Coffee Date -> First (real) Date.  Feel that chemistry “click”?  (1/4) [1/800]
• One in four First Dates will turn into a Second Date (1/2)
• Second Date -> Third Date (relationship prognosis) (1/3)
  • Recap: from Match Notice to Date 3: 1/4800

Wow!  You’ll need 4800 match listings to get to an interesting Date 3!  How long will that take?

If each week:

• Online system down or maintenance mode when you’re online: 1 night
• You forget: 1 night
• You’re busy, working late, sick, at the gym, using the other online dating site, etc: 1 night

Then you can be on the system 4 nights a week.

Maximum new matches/day: 7 (eHarmony)

Maximum new matches per week: 28.  Per year: 1,456

Ok, so in a year, I can be matched to 1500 ladies.  Of those, what will happen are:

1,456 matches * 1/200 = 7 Coffee Dates

7 Coffee Dates -> 2 First Dates

2 First Dates -> 1 Second Date

In one year, your result is: one serious Second Date.  But, you need 4800 match listings to find someone who will be a relationship beyond 3 dates. (see Dating Demographics to examine how things progress after the first few dates)

Well, it looks like at this rate, it will take 3 years.

What did you do to find her?

• Account creation time: 2 hours
• Account maintenance (search setting updates, etc.): 30 min/month. 6 hours/year
• Four nights a week, at an average of 45 minutes: 3 hours/week, 156 hours/year
• Coffee Dates: One hour (less is rude, more is great unless you’re not interested in which case you’re wasting your time and leading her on), plus driving and telling your friends about it: 90 minutes each.  7 of them.  10.5 hrs/year
• First Dates: two hours, plus driving and telling your friends about it: 2 ½ hours.  2 of them.  5 hours/year
• Second Date: one hour, plus driving and telling your friends about it: 3 hours

Time: 183 hours/year

And how much did it cost you to find her?

• $19.95/month.  $240/year = $720
• Coffee dates: $5 each x 7 = $35/year = $105
• First Dates: $60 each x 2 = $120/year = $360
• Second Date: $100/year = $300
• Your time:  183 hours @ $50/hour (if your salary is $100,000): $9150/year = $27,450
• Total cost: $28,935

Including the cost of phone calls (or bar drinks) to tell your friends about your experiences, let’s say a flat $30,000.

To summarize, using Project Management metrics: to find someone for a serious relationship beyond Date 3:

• Result: find someone for a serious relationship beyond Date 3
• Effort level: Four Nights a week, ~45 minutes each
• Duration: Three years
• Cost: $30,000

To reduce the duration according to the calendar, you multitask.  You try more of the above, in parallel!  Two unregulateds.  One regulated, one not.  That’s why most men are on more than one site.  Darn that auto-renew on the credit card form entry! You’re meeting crazies, women you don’t click with, and women you like but fade out on you.  And all this time, whether you’re active, resting, or hiding, you are paying over ten thousand dollars a year for this insane “pleasure.”

Incredulous! You say.  What about the testimonials? And the people I know who met online?

Ask them how much time and effort they went through.  Also, it is much easier to find people who succeeded than failed because the ones who failed don’t wear shirts that say “I ran the funnel online and met nobody.”  It is like assuming it is easy to win the lottery because you know more people who won the lottery (they’re interviewed on tv) than those who admit to losing (just about everyone).  It should work.  You want it to work.  I wanted it to work, and a lot sooner than the years I was in it.  My clients wanted it to work.  And we were disappointed.

eHarmony was the major model for this study.  I found their “voting” on the quality of the match feature to actually improve my interest in the matches sent to me  So, my 1/5 “interest in her” improved.  That made me happy, until I noticed over time that as other ladies used it, I sometimes had less than seven new matches in my in basket each day.  So, it balanced out.

One final thing I never understood about online dating.  When I did meet a woman from online dating, I was shocked that she did not know simple things about me from my profile.  (Hah!  You thought I’d say things like the age of their pictures, or that they lied about their age, height, weight, and smoking habits.)  While the outside of my face would smile and nod, the inside of my head was screaming, “Did you not see that part of my profile that says my age, or the town or zip code where I live?  How can you suddenly be bummed that I live or work 40 miles away, after you’ve read my profile, or even swapped emails or phone calls prior to meeting?”  I know you’re thinking: “It’s an excuse.  A nice way to say ‘no’ without hurting your feelings.  She wouldn’t react that way if she were interested in you.”

Nope.  The data does not support that.  I’ve asked, “Is xyz a surprise to you?  Did you see it in my profile?”  I was getting info for my Profile Optimization Plan (“make your profile POP in three months!  Five times as many connections!  Just an extra $9.99 a month!  Click here!”).  For this reason, many men in the San Francisco/Silicon Valley/Bay Area get a cell phone in San Francisco, without living there.  Anything other than 415 area code is GUD (“geographically undesirable,”  Hmmm… Russian women don’t have this concept).

With this article and the previous article on free sites, you now know all you need about Online Dating.

Benefit: You learn what you want in a relationship partner; collimate your search pattern and relationship needs; practice meeting and dating a variety of women

Cost: $10,000 – $15,000/year, especially when considering the cost of your time

Cost/Benefit Analysis: Give it a try, but limit yourself to six months

Now you know the TCO: total cost of online dating.  See how it compares to “Part 5: Events Dedicated to Singles.”